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September Inflation, the TÜİK–ENAG Gap

Two Thermometers, One Fever

Author: Oğuz Demirkapı
September Inflation, the TÜİK–ENAG Gap

Two Thermometers, One Fever: September Inflation, the TÜİK–ENAG Gap, and the Class of the Bill

In Brief: What Was Announced Today, and What Does It Mean?

This morning, at 10.00, two thermometers took the same patient's temperature.

TÜİK announced that in September consumer prices rose by 1.84 percent in the month and 29.73 percent over the year. The rise since the start of the year is 24.32 percent, and the twelve-month average is 31.49 percent. The annual figure fell below 30 percent for the first time in months; this is today's headline on the government's side (Forbes Türkiye, Gazete Vatan).

ENAG (the Inflation Research Group) said, for the same month, 2.10 percent monthly and 46.61 percent annually (Politikars, Son Mühür).

Between the two figures there are 16.88 points. This is not a rounding difference; it is about a month and a half's wage that, over a year, leaves a minimum-wage earner's pocket in silence.

The class summary, in five sentences:

  • Prices are updated every month, the wage once a year. The minimum wage has stood at 28,075.50 lira since January; even by TÜİK's own figure, this wage has lost about a fifth of its purchasing power (19.6 percent) since January.
  • The rent-increase ceiling became 31.49 percent, the wage increase zero. The landlord's income is tied to the larger figure, the wage earner's income to the smaller one, and often to no figure at all.
  • The Central Bank's year-end "interim target" was 24 percent; by September the rise since the start of the year was 24.32 percent. The target was passed three months early. But the January minimum-wage bargaining will again be asked to proceed through the "target".
  • Food fell by 0.20 percent in September; education, housing and transport climbed. School opened, rent and energy were raised, and the diesel SCT calendar is running. While the average falls, the worker household's real items are rising.
  • The real question is not "which thermometer is right" but "whose fever is being taken". Both TÜİK and ENAG measure an "average" household. The inflation of a worker household that is a tenant, that lives on the minimum wage, and that has a child of school age is a different thing from either. There is no such thing as average inflation; there is class inflation.

Below we open this figure by figure. This piece is built on The Compass of Class Struggle: The Political Economy of Inflation and the Plunder of the Working Class, which we published in July; it should also be read with The Class of a Litre of Diesel, Where Did Unemployment Hide in August? and TÜİK: Two Figures, One Country: 8.1% and 30.6%.


Dear Young Comrades,

On the third or the fifth of every month the same ceremony is repeated. Towards ten o'clock the phones heat up, the TÜİK figure drops, five minutes later ENAG's arrives, and the screens split in two: on one side "inflation is falling", on the other "TÜİK is lying". Until evening everyone defends their own figure, and the next morning the subject closes.

The aim of this piece is to leave that ceremony. Because so long as the fight between two figures remains a fight about a figure, the winner is always the same side. In our July piece we called this difference an "epistemological war", and we were right to: which datum counts as "real" determines whose wage will rise by how much. But the front of the war is not between two institutions; it is in the question of whose life the figure is measured against.

Today we will do three things:

  • First we will read the figures properly: what did TÜİK say, what did ENAG say, and what is the difference a difference of?
  • Then we will calculate how these figures touch whose pocket: the minimum-wage earner, the civil servant, the pensioner, the tenant, the parent of a student.
  • And last we will talk about what falls to us: how does one pass from the fight over the thermometer to the fight over the wage?

The Figures: Two Institutions, Two Measures

What did TÜİK say?

The summary of TÜİK's September 2026 consumer price index bulletin is this (Forbes Türkiye, Öğretmenler Sitesi, Meridyen Haber):

IndicatorSeptember 2026
CPI, monthly1.84%
CPI, annual29.73%
Since the start of the year (against December 2025)24.32%
Twelve-month average (the rent ceiling)31.49%
Core inflation (index C), annual29.00%
Domestic PPI, monthly2.07%
Domestic PPI, annual27.38%
Number of items whose price rose / fell (out of 174)133 / 35

Looked at by main expenditure groups, the table is this:

GroupMonthlyAnnualContribution to annual inflation (points)
Food and non-alcoholic beverages−0.20%27.62%6.73
Transport2.79%35.10%5.96
Housing, water, electricity, gas2.71%39.99%4.84
Educationabove 14%48.62%—
Health—43.26%—
Clothing and footwear—13.22%—

A short note: September's monthly figure is the same as August's, 1.84 percent (Yeniçağ, Serbestiyet). In July it was 1.78 percent (Info Yatırım). The main reason the annual figure fell is that last September's high monthly rise has dropped out of the account; in economics this is called the base effect. That is, the annual figure fell not because prices slowed this month, but because last year this month they rose very fast. Whoever does not know this distinction easily believes the headline "inflation is falling".

What did ENAG say?

ENAG is an initiative a group of independent academics founded in 2020, which publishes a monthly index from its own price collection. Since its founding it has been the target of TÜİK's complaints and of accusations of "disinformation"; that is, it is not only a statistic, it is also a party to a struggle over statistics.

IndicatorAugust 2026September 2026
E-CPI, monthly2.24%2.10%
E-CPI, annual49.03%46.61%
TÜİK, annual (for comparison)31.51%29.73%
Annual gap (points)17.5216.88

Sources: Son Mühür, Politikars, Yeniçağ.

A third thermometer: the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce

The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce's Istanbul retail price index was 2.11 percent monthly and 33.55 percent annual in September (Yeniçağ). The Chamber is an organisation of capital; it is not a workers' organisation, and it is not oppositional at all. Even so, its thermometer too reads about 4 points higher than TÜİK's. Note this: TÜİK's figure is below even the employers' organisation's figure.

Where does the gap come from?

Care is needed here; because the "epistemological war" finding in our July piece was right, but the front of the war today has shifted a little.

In September there are only 0.26 points between the two institutions' monthly figures: 1.84 against 2.10. If you spread these two monthly figures over twelve months, it comes to about 24.5 percent for TÜİK and about 28.3 percent for ENAG (the calculation is ours). That is, the two thermometers are measuring much closer to each other today.

So where do the 16.88 points between the annual figures come from? From the past. The months in which ENAG measured higher than TÜİK over the last twelve months pile on top of one another and accumulate in the annual figure. This tells two things:

  • The greater part of the divergence opened in the past months of the last year, especially in the period when the items of rent, energy, food and services were rising fast.
  • Because wage and salary bargaining is done with the inflation of the past twelve months, the gap that opened in the past still lives on today's payroll. To say "the figures are close this month" is not to say "what you lost last year has come back".

The gap also comes from method: which goods enter the basket, with what weight they enter, how rent is measured, where the price is collected from. In TÜİK's basket the weight of rent is set according to the average of the whole population; households that own their home and pay no rent are inside this average too. For a tenant worker family, rent is a third of income, sometimes half. The thermometer is placed not on the tenant's forehead, but on the average of the crowd.

A thermometer may be measuring wrong. But a thermometer that measures right may also have been placed on the wrong patient.


There Is No Such Thing as Average Inflation

In our July piece we described inflation as "a pump that draws off surplus value": in an order where prices change every day and the wage once a year, every day in between is a day of transfer from the wage to profit, to rent and to interest. That finding still stands. Today let us make it one step more concrete.

What both TÜİK and ENAG measure is the basket of an average household. But in Turkey there is no average household. Look at these three households:

  • A tenant worker household on the minimum wage. The greater part of its income goes to rent, food, energy and transport. In September food fell a little, but rent, energy and transport climbed. If the child started school, the education item rose by double digits in a month. This household's inflation is above the average.
  • A middle-class household that owns its home and lets out a second one. A rent increase is not an expense; it is income. Energy and food are a small share of the budget. For this household inflation is not a cost; it is in part a source of income.
  • A household of capital that holds deposits, a fund, or foreign currency. In a high-interest setting its money yields a return that exceeds inflation. Inflation, for it, is an interest income transferred from other people's wages.

The three are averaged inside the same "29.73 percent". The average dissolves the classes inside one another. This is why the question "TÜİK or ENAG?" is a half question. The full question is this: Whose basket is this figure, and to whose wage will it be applied?

September's class basket

TÜİK's own breakdown already shows this distinction:

ItemAnnual riseHeavy in whose budget?
Education48.62%The household with a child of school age, carrying the "donation" and the school-bus load of the state school
Health43.26%The pensioner and the worker forced into the private hospital, paying a contribution for medicine
Housing, water, electricity, gas39.99%The tenant household paying a bill out of proportion to its income
Transport35.10%The worker tied to the service bus, the minibus, to diesel; the self-employed courier, the driver
General CPI29.73%The "average" household
Food27.62%Everyone, but most of all those whose income is lowest
Clothing13.22%Spending that can be postponed; the first item a poor household cuts

Look at the table carefully: the items that pull the average down are the items the poor can already postpone, or that fall with the season. The items above the average are the items that cannot be escaped and cannot be postponed: rent, energy, school, hospital, the road. A worker family can put off the winter coat for another year; it cannot put off the rent, the bill, the school bus.

This is why we say that a worker household's inflation, whichever thermometer it is measured with, is above the general index. TÜİK's figure, ENAG's figure, and the worker's figure are three separate things.


The Bill: Whose Pocket the Figure Touches

Now let us turn the figures into a payroll, a rent contract, a pension. All the calculations are ours, and they rest only on the official data above.

The minimum-wage earner: a fifth in nine months

The 2026 net minimum wage is 28,075.50 lira; it was set in January with a rise of about 27 percent (WageIndicator), and no mid-year raise was made.

According to TÜİK, prices have risen 24.32 percent since December 2025. So:

  • The purchasing power of 28,075.50 lira today is 22,583 lira at December 2025 prices.
  • The loss is 19.6 percent. A minimum-wage earner lost one lira in every five in nine months. This is according to the state's own thermometer.
  • For the wage to return to its purchasing power of January 2026, even if the Central Bank's year-end forecast of 28 percent holds, the net minimum wage in January 2027 has to rise to 35,937 lira. This is not a "raise"; it is only standing still.
  • If we do the same calculation with ENAG's annual figure, the amount required in order to stand still is 41,161 lira.

Place the figure that will be announced in January between these two numbers. Every figure that stays below 35,937 is, even by the government's own data, a cut in the wage. Even if its name is "raise".

According to TÜRK-İŞ's September calculation, the hunger line for a family of four passed 37 thousand lira, and the poverty line passed 123 thousand lira (Evrensel). The net minimum wage is at about three quarters of the hunger line. That is, for millions of worker families the question is not "what is inflation?" but how the end of the month will be reached.

Tenant and landlord: the large figure to whom, the small figure to whom?

With the September data, the legal increase ceiling in housing rent contracts to be renewed in October became 31.49 percent (Banka Dünyası, Habertürk).

Note this: the rent ceiling is tied to the twelve-month average. While inflation falls, the twelve-month average stays higher than the annual figure. Today it is so: the average is 31.49, the annual figure 29.73. That is, the landlord is indexed to the larger of the two official figures in hand.

Look at the wage earner. The minimum-wage earner is indexed to no figure; the wage is set once a year, by bargaining, and most often by "target inflation". The civil servant and the pensioner are indexed to six-month inflation, but with a six-month delay. The tenant's wage has stood still for nine months; the landlord's rental income can rise by 31.49 percent.

Tied to which figure?Updated when?As of September
The landlord's rental income12-month average CPIEach contract yearAn increase of up to 31.49%
The minimum wageTied to no figure; bargaining and the targetOnce a year (January)0% since January
The civil servant's salaryCollective agreement + the 6-month inflation differenceEvery six months, with a delayNo increase since July
The pension6-month CPIEvery six months, with a delayNo increase since July

The same month's data from the same institution of the same state says to the landlord "take 31.49 percent", and to the wage earner "wait for January". We told the class of housing on a European scale in Maricarmen's Stretcher, Elif's Key: Europe's Housing Crisis and the Class of the Home; in Turkey the same class is written inside the rent-ceiling formula.

Civil servant and pensioner: half of the six months is gone

In our July piece we noted that the July 2026 raise was 13.51 percent for civil servants and 17.75 percent for pensioners. Those raises were to cover the January–June inflation; that is, they were not a new purchasing power, they were compensation for a loss.

In July, August and September the monthly TÜİK figures were 1.78, 1.84 and 1.84 percent in turn. The three months together are 5.56 percent (the calculation is ours). For civil servants the collective-agreement raise in the second half of 2026 was 7 percent (Borsa Gündem). In three months more than three quarters of it was eroded; if the same pace continues in the remaining three months, six-month inflation will comfortably pass 7 percent.

This "inflation difference" mechanism carries a detail that wrongs people: the difference is paid after the loss has been lived, in January. The purchasing power lost each month from July to December is not paid back; only from January on is the salary drawn up to the new level. The money lost over six months is money that never comes back. For pensioners the situation is the same. The sentence on the placard of Ali Şekeroğlu, who lost his life in the pensioners' action in front of the Constitutional Court in Ankara on 25 September, is this account turned into human language: "Not for money, for our honour."

The parent of a student: September's special item

September is the month schools open. TÜİK's education group rose by more than 14 percent in a month, and by 48.62 percent in a year (Meridyen Haber). Private-school and course fees weigh heavily inside this item; but the "voluntary donation" at the state school, the bus, the stationery and the meals are also the worker family's real education inflation. The finding in The Bell Does Not Ring the Same for Everyone, which we wrote at the opening of the school year, is in TÜİK's table today: education in this country is no longer a right, it is a commodity raised by 48 percent a year.

The road and diesel: the calendar is running

Transport rose by 2.79 percent in the month and 35.10 percent over the year in September; the month's highest monthly rise was in this group. In The Class of a Litre of Diesel we had calculated that the SCT on diesel would rise by 3 lira each month from September to December, and that even if oil and the exchange rate did not stir at all, the litre of diesel would approach 113 lira in January 2027. The September data is the first month of this calendar. In October, November and December, 3.60 lira more, VAT included, will be added to the pump each month.

The annual rise in refined petroleum products in producer prices is 116.75 percent (Meridyen Haber). Producer prices rose faster than consumer prices in September, at 2.07 percent in the month. If the producer's cost rises today, the consumer's price rises tomorrow. That is, September's "good news" is carrying October's and November's bill.


Whose Target Is the Target?

In its August inflation report the Central Bank raised its 2026 year-end forecast from 26 percent to 28 percent; it kept the year-end "interim target" at 24 percent (sol). The 2027 target is 15 percent.

As of September the rise since the start of the year is 24.32 percent. That is, the year-end interim target was passed in September, three months early.

For the 28 percent forecast to hold, the total rise in October, November and December has to stay at about 3 percent, that is, at about 1 percent a month on average (the calculation is ours). The monthly average of the last three months is 1.8. And ahead of us there are the diesel SCT calendar, the winter energy rises, and the pressure that will come from producer prices. Economists' September expectation was itself 2.18 percent (Gazete Vatan); because the figure came in below the expectation, it will be said that "disinflation is continuing". But for the year-end forecast to hold, every month from now on has to come in almost half as low as this month.

Why does this matter? Because the target is not a forecast; it is a bargaining instrument. Wages and the minimum wage are sought to be set not according to "past inflation" but according to "target inflation". The target never holds; but the wage set by the target always holds. In our July piece we had placed Kemal Derviş and Mehmet Şimşek side by side as "two technicians, one mission". The working of this mission today is this:

  • The target is announced low.
  • Wages, contracts, the minimum wage are set according to the low target.
  • The inflation that materialises comes out above the target.
  • The difference in between is transferred from the wage earner to capital.
  • The next year, a new and again low target is announced.

The Central Bank was last able to hit its inflation target in 2010. That a target missed every year for sixteen years is still used every year as the anchor of wage bargaining is not an incompetence; it is a method.


For Whom Is "Disinflation" Working?

In the diesel piece we had quoted Şimşek's own sentence: "Disinflation requires a slowdown in growth in the short term." The data of the last three weeks show who pays the bill of the slowdown:

  • Unemployment: In August, while narrowly defined unemployment fell to 7.8 percent, the idle labour force rate rose to 31 percent (Where Did Unemployment Hide in August?). As wages erode, more people work fewer hours, with less security, and for longer weeks.
  • The exchange and the funds: In September's fund crisis the small saver's money was locked, and collateral facilities were provided to the big players (Circuit Breaker: The Bourgeoisie's Exchange Does Not Even Trust Itself, Control for Capital, the Blast for Us). The management of the crisis has a class.
  • The wage: From the government, not one sentence on a mid-year raise for the minimum wage. The pension, the civil servant's salary, the minimum wage stand still until January.

The logic of the disinflation programme is this: to slow the rise in prices by lowering demand. But demand is not an abstract thing. The easiest way to lower demand in a society is to lower the purchasing power of the widest section, that is, of the wage earner. Luxury consumption does not slow with interest; what slows is the worker's kitchen. Disinflation is a price stability obtained by melting the wage in real terms. Whether inflation falls or not, its bill goes to the same address.

This is why today's headline "we have gone below 30 percent" is a confession as much as it is a declaration of success: 29.73 percent was reached by melting a fifth of the minimum wage in nine months.


On Top of Our July Piece: What Do We Keep, What Do We Thin?

The value of a series of pieces is that it can test its earlier pieces. The spine of our July piece on inflation is standing today too:

  • Inflation is an instrument of distribution. So long as the price is set weekly and the wage yearly, inflation is a transfer from the wage to profit, to rent and to interest. The September data confirmed this again.
  • Official statistics are not neutral. Which figure counts as "official" determines whose wage will rise by how much.
  • Technocratic language hides the class preference. The words "target", "anchor", "expectation management" are the technical names of the pressure on the wage.

There are places we need to thin, too:

  • It is not enough to say "TÜİK is lying". Today there are 0.26 points between the two institutions' monthly figures. If we squeeze the fight only into the question "whose figure is right", the fight ends too when the two figures draw close. But the wage earner's loss does not end. The real demand is that the wage be indexed to inflation automatically and often; whichever figure it is, that the wage melts every month comes from the order itself.
  • The criticism of the "average" is deeper than the criticism of the "institution". ENAG too measures an average household. What the working class needs is a worker-household inflation, calculated according to the basket of the tenant, minimum-wage, worker household with children. This is a datum that unions and professional organisations can produce.
  • Being measured in the figures is the condition of being firm in the thesis. In the July piece we had used the word "hyperinflation". In economics this concept is used for rises above 50 percent a month; what Turkey is living is chronic and high inflation. Choosing the word correctly does not weaken the thesis; on the contrary, it protects it from the other side's objection of "exaggeration". We use a figure not because we like it, but because it is true.

The Official Account, the Class Reading

The official accountThe class reading
"Annual inflation has gone below 30 percent."The fall is largely the base effect. The monthly pace has been about 1.8 for three months; the wage has been fixed for nine months.
"September inflation stayed below expectations."A figure below the expectation does not change the minimum-wage earner's 19.6 percent loss over nine months.
"Food prices fell."A seasonal fall. Rent, energy, school, hospital, the road are climbing; the worker household's items that cannot be postponed.
"The disinflation process is continuing with determination."The year-end interim target (24 percent) was passed in September. What is continuing is the melting of the wage in real terms.
"ENAG is not scientific, it is disinformation."Even the thermometer of the employers' organisation, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, is 4 points higher than TÜİK. The argument is not science; it is an argument about distribution.
"The rent increase was limited by law."The ceiling was tied to the larger of the two official figures: 31.49 percent. The wage earner was tied to no figure.
"Civil servants and pensioners will not be crushed by inflation."The difference is paid with a six-month delay; the purchasing power lost in between is never paid back.
"Wage increases must be compatible with target inflation."A target that has not held for sixteen years is made the anchor of the wage every year. This is not a mistake; it is a method.

For the Young Comrades: How Should an Inflation Figure Be Read?

Comrade, to read that figure which drops onto the screen on the fifth of every month, ask four questions:

Is this the month's figure, or last year's shadow? The annual figure is the sum of twelve months. Is the reason for the fall this month's slowing, or the height of the same month last year? Do not rejoice in the annual figure without looking at the monthly figure.

Whose basket? How much weight do rent, energy, school, hospital and the road have inside the figure? How much weight do they have in your household? Look at the group indices instead of the general index; calculate your own inflation with your own basket.

Which figure has been tied to whom? The same month's data passes into rent at what rate, into the wage at what rate, into the pension with what delay? When you ask this question, the statistic turns into the map of distribution.

In whose hands, under whose control, for whose benefit? Who collects the figure, who publishes it, who is prosecuted as "disinformation" when they object? Who gains from the figure coming out low? The three questions of the Knowledge Commons hold for statistics too.

When you ask these four questions you leave the fight of "TÜİK or ENAG". What you have in hand is not two thermometers but a map of distribution. And your name is written on that map.


Concrete Tasks

  • Calculate your own inflation. Divide the household's spending for one month into seven items: rent, food, energy, transport, education, health, other. Apply to each item TÜİK's annual rise for that group. Compare the figure that comes out with the general CPI. In most worker households the figure will come out above the general index. Do this calculation together at the workplace, at school, in the neighbourhood.
  • Ask for a sliding scale for the wage. For fuel there is a "moving staircase"; for the wage there is not. Carry onto the agenda of your union, your workplace representation, your student collective the automatic indexation of the minimum wage and of all wages to inflation at least once every six months, and if possible once every three months. In Italy the scala mobile was, for close to half a century, the working class's most important gain.
  • Ask for compensation for the delay. Defend the demand that, for the civil servant and the pensioner, the inflation difference be paid not only from January on, but retrospectively, month by month. So long as the lost purchasing power is not paid back, the "difference" is not a real difference.
  • Produce organised data for a worker-household inflation. Unions, professional chambers, student collectives and neighbourhood assemblies can make their own price collections: the same market, the same bazaar, the same rent advertisements, the same day every month. Not only the state, and not only academics, can measure the figure; the class itself can measure it too.
  • Open the rent ceiling to argument. Ask why the rent increase is tied to the larger of the two official figures, and why the wage is tied to none. Join tenant solidarities and the struggles for the right to housing.
  • Prepare for the January bargaining now. When the minimum wage determination commission meets, keep in hand the figure "required in order to stand still" (at least 35,937 lira according to TÜİK). Name every figure below this not a "raise" but a "cut".
  • Defend ENAG against the threat of prosecution, but ask it questions too. The right to independent statistics is a democratic right. At the same time, ask ENAG too to publish more openly the breakdown of rent, education and food, and the poor household's basket. Knowledge is a commons.
  • Update your figure every month. Fill in the tables in this piece again on the fifth of every month: the monthly CPI, the rise since the start of the year, the real value of the minimum wage, the rent ceiling. When December comes, let what you have in hand be a series of not nine but twelve months. Let the figure be yours.

Dear Comrades,

This morning two thermometers took the same patient's temperature; one said 29.73, the other 46.61. On the screens, all day, the thermometers were discussed. The patient was not.

The patient is a tenant worker family. Its wage has been the same for nine months, its rent can rise by 31.49 percent, its child's school became 48 percent dearer in a year, its school bus is tied to the diesel calendar. Its fever is neither 29.73 nor 46.61. Its fever is the money left at the end of the month.

Inflation is the name not of a thermometer but of a distribution. Unless we ask not who takes the temperature but who pays the bill, we lose the same argument again on the fifth of every month.


Our Related Pieces

For our economy and class line: bilgimusterekleri.org/en/tag/ekonomi

Inflation and the wage

The ideology of the statistic, and unemployment

The other faces of the crisis

Sources

The calculated rates (the real value of the minimum wage, the amounts required "in order to stand still", the three-month cumulative inflation, the annualised form of the monthly figures, the monthly pace required for the year-end forecast) are ours; the raw data they rest on are linked above.


Knowledge Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Copy it.

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